It goes without saying that 2025 is shaping up to be a fateful year. As I explained in my book Staying Off the Wheel of Misfortune, we’re in the midst of a period of societal collapse — one that happens every 80 years or so. (Previous periods like this in American history include the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and World War II.) As unpleasant as these periods are, they serve an extremely important purpose: The massive changes they bring clear the way for new ideas to take root. (And no, there won’t necessarily be a war.)

Ironically, the changes and challenges we’re facing this time around may be much bigger than the ones that have occurred in the past during (and after) these periods of collapse and rebirth. In a way, repeating historical cycles are like waves on the ocean. On rare occasions multiple waves line up and blend together, turning into one really huge “rogue” wave. Right now, multiple types of historical cycles — political, economic, scientific and environmental — are coming to a peak at the same time, creating something of a “rogue wave” of change. That means we could be in for some really big changes.

This shouldn’t be surprising, because the list of global challenges we’re facing right now is long. Many Americans are understandably focused on our political situation, but we’re also in the midst of a climate crisis and a revolution in artificial intelligence. The list of poential problems that could accompany all of this is long (as we’re often reminded), but there’s also a long list of potential positive developments that could occur in the next few years. We could see nuclear fusion finally become practical, solving the world’s energy problems forever; we could find effective ways to defuse the climate crisis; we could find ways to end misinformation campaigns and ignorance once and for all; dictatorships around the world could collapse; and artificial intelligence could turn out to be far less scary than some are projecting, helping us to solve our biggest problems instead. Whatever happens, history suggests that the next few years will bring change on a scale never before seen in human history.

Right now many people are worried that mankind is finally showing its true, hateful colors, and that we’re headed into a storm that will leave no ship afloat. Those concerns are understandable. But this has happened before, and that has never been the outcome. This is the end of an era, not the end of the world.

So, take heart. Do your best to keep your own ship afloat as multiple unpredictable changes unfold around us. Be as kind as you can to those you encounter, even those who disgree with you about what’s happening. This storm may get worse for a while, but it will pass. And when we emerge from it the world will be a very different — and hopefully much better — place.

A personal note: Historical times of collapse and rebirth are not always kind to artists. If events get too scary, I may stop posting new music and thoughts for a while. However, if I do, I’ll resume posting new music and thoughts later. In the meantime, please continue to enjoy my work and share it with your friends!

With that in mind, best wishes for peace, hope and a little bit of joy in the new year!

And a new song…

To help get the new year off to a positive start, I’m releasing a song that I wrote back in the 1990s but never recorded until this past year, Closer to the Fire. It’s all about how we choose to see the obstacles we encounter in life: We can see them as turning us into victims, or we can see them as challenges that bring us closer to our best selves. (Guess which choice I’m rooting for!) Enjoy!